Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

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Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Petter Reinholdtsen
Looking at <URL: http://popcon.debian.org/ >, it seem to me that the
number of stable installations is dropping fast.  The graph
"popularity-contest versions in use" show this, with version 1.41
being the one in stable.

When the version in stable, testing and unstable were different (now
the same version is in testing and unstable), the approximate relative
distribution of submitteres to popcon were for stable 60%, testing 20%
and unstable 5% (the rest were non-upgraded installs of various
flavour).

The number of installations using testing has been slowly increasing,
but not enough to compensate for the reduction in stable
installations.  The net effect is that fewer and fewer are submitting
to popcon.debian.org.

I suspect this is because Debian is loosing users. :(

Happy hacking,
--
Petter Reinholdtsen


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Florian Weimer
* Petter Reinholdtsen:

> The number of installations using testing has been slowly increasing,
> but not enough to compensate for the reduction in stable
> installations.  The net effect is that fewer and fewer are submitting
> to popcon.debian.org.

This doesn't appear in the per-architecture statistics.  Are you sure
you got your numbers correct?


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Sven Joachim
In reply to this post by Petter Reinholdtsen
On 2008-12-21 09:40 +0100, Petter Reinholdtsen wrote:

> Looking at <URL: http://popcon.debian.org/ >, it seem to me that the
> number of stable installations is dropping fast.  The graph
> "popularity-contest versions in use" show this, with version 1.41
> being the one in stable.
>
> When the version in stable, testing and unstable were different (now
> the same version is in testing and unstable), the approximate relative
> distribution of submitteres to popcon were for stable 60%, testing 20%
> and unstable 5% (the rest were non-upgraded installs of various
> flavour).
>
> The number of installations using testing has been slowly increasing,
> but not enough to compensate for the reduction in stable
> installations.  The net effect is that fewer and fewer are submitting
> to popcon.debian.org.

I don't think this is true.  The overall number of submissions is
79000+, a number that has been quite stable for a while (it was slightly
lower last summer, probably because of holidays).

> I suspect this is because Debian is loosing users. :(

At least as far as popcon is concerned, the number of users does not
seem to go down.

Sven


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Karl Goetz-4
In reply to this post by Petter Reinholdtsen
On Sun, 21 Dec 2008 09:40:45 +0100
Petter Reinholdtsen <[hidden email]> wrote:


> The number of installations using testing has been slowly increasing,
> but not enough to compensate for the reduction in stable
> installations.  The net effect is that fewer and fewer are submitting
> to popcon.debian.org.

Or some people are doing what I did - clean install from stable ->
testing (to see the new D-I) and not installing popcon.

>
> I suspect this is because Debian is loosing users. :(

Wasn't there one of these threads a little while ago?
kk

>
> Happy hacking,


--
Karl Goetz, (Kamping_Kaiser / VK5FOSS)
Debian user / gNewSense contributor
http://www.kgoetz.id.au
No, I won't join your social networking group


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Petter Reinholdtsen
In reply to this post by Florian Weimer
[Florian Weimer]

> * Petter Reinholdtsen:
>
>> The number of installations using testing has been slowly increasing,
>> but not enough to compensate for the reduction in stable
>> installations.  The net effect is that fewer and fewer are submitting
>> to popcon.debian.org.
>
> This doesn't appear in the per-architecture statistics.  Are you sure
> you got your numbers correct?

Yes.  I get an email with the latest numbers very day. :)

Some examples of the total number of submissions (ignoring those with
unknown arch - around 200 the last year or so):

  2008-09-02 75595
  2008-09-15 76712
  2008-10-01 76532
  2008-10-15 77111
  2008-11-01 79441
  2008-11-15 79694
  2008-12-01 79459
  2008-12-15 79262
  2008-12-20 79202

As you can see, the number of submissions have dropped the last month.
Not by much so far, but it used to increase every week.

Happy hacking,
--
Petter Reinholdtsen


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Petter Reinholdtsen
In reply to this post by Karl Goetz-4
[Karl Goetz]
> Or some people are doing what I did - clean install from stable ->
> testing (to see the new D-I) and not installing popcon.

Oh, I am sure some people are doing this.  But for it to have an
effect on the statistics, more people need to do install lenny without
enabling popcon than those that earlier installing etch and without
enabling popcon, and I am not aware of anything that should cause
that. :)

Happy hacking,
--
Petter Reinholdtsen


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Teemu Likonen-2
In reply to this post by Petter Reinholdtsen
Petter Reinholdtsen (2008-12-21 14:38 +0100) wrote:

> [Florian Weimer]
>> This doesn't appear in the per-architecture statistics. Are you sure
>> you got your numbers correct?

> As you can see, the number of submissions have dropped the last month.
> Not by much so far, but it used to increase every week.

Maybe we want to look at the bigger picture. This is a graph about the
number of installations of popularity-contest package from the release
of Etch to this day:

http://qa.debian.org/popcon-graph.php?packages=popularity-contest&show_installed=on&from_date=2007-04-08&to_date=&hlght_date=&date_fmt=%25Y-%25m&beenhere=1

(Obviously this is does not make distinction between stable, testing and
unstable.)

This time frame tells or suggests that Debian's popularity increased
very much after Etch release and it has remained about the same after
March/April 2008. It's too early to make any estimations from the last
month.


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Sven Joachim
On 2008-12-21 15:14 +0100, Teemu Likonen wrote:

> Petter Reinholdtsen (2008-12-21 14:38 +0100) wrote:
>
>> As you can see, the number of submissions have dropped the last month.
>> Not by much so far, but it used to increase every week.
>
> Maybe we want to look at the bigger picture. This is a graph about the
> number of installations of popularity-contest package from the release
> of Etch to this day:
>
> http://qa.debian.org/popcon-graph.php?packages=popularity-contest&show_installed=on&from_date=2007-04-08&to_date=&hlght_date=&date_fmt=%25Y-%25m&beenhere=1
>
> (Obviously this is does not make distinction between stable, testing and
> unstable.)
>
> This time frame tells or suggests that Debian's popularity increased
> very much after Etch release

Not quite true.  It tells that the _number of popcon users_ increased,
which is small wonder since the Etch installer installs the
popularity-contest package by default while the Sarge installer did not.

> and it has remained about the same after
> March/April 2008. It's too early to make any estimations from the last
> month.

True.  I think we should reevaluate the situation in a year or so when
the seasonal effects (e.g., lower numbers because of vacations during
northern summer) can be estimated better.

Sven


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Andreas Tille
In reply to this post by Petter Reinholdtsen
On Sun, 21 Dec 2008, Petter Reinholdtsen wrote:

>  2008-09-02 75595
>  2008-09-15 76712    <--
>  2008-10-01 76532    <--
>  2008-10-15 77111
>  2008-11-01 79441
>  2008-11-15 79694
>  2008-12-01 79459
>  2008-12-15 79262
>  2008-12-20 79202
>
> As you can see, the number of submissions have dropped the last month.
> Not by much so far, but it used to increase every week.

Well, it did not really increased every week (see September - October).
We are talking here about numbers < 1%.  It might happen that somebody
installs a cluster of 200 computers by default with popcon and later
realised that it does not make sense to run popcon on every node.  So
there might be other explanations for such a drop and I would starts
becoming curous about what's happening once we are droping at about
5% of the maximum.

IMHO the best thing we can do about this decreasing popcon numbers is
releasing Lenny, right?

Kind regards

             Andreas.

--
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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Gunnar Wolf
In reply to this post by Petter Reinholdtsen
Petter Reinholdtsen dijo [Sun, Dec 21, 2008 at 09:40:45AM +0100]:

> Looking at <URL: http://popcon.debian.org/ >, it seem to me that the
> number of stable installations is dropping fast.  The graph
> "popularity-contest versions in use" show this, with version 1.41
> being the one in stable.
> (...)
> The number of installations using testing has been slowly increasing,
> but not enough to compensate for the reduction in stable
> installations.  The net effect is that fewer and fewer are submitting
> to popcon.debian.org.
>
> I suspect this is because Debian is loosing users. :(

While we might be "losing users" to derivative distributions, that
won't take my sleep away. And I'm not only talking about Ubuntu -
There are many Debian derivatives with huge install bases (i.e. all
the government-funded distributions in different places of the world,
or hardware providers shipping Debian-based stuff as Maemo). But as
for the distribution of users within Debian itself - I find it a
natural, cyclic thing - We announced Testing to be frozen many months
ago, and over this time, users have started migrating, as it will not
change much. And even if many of us repeat again and again to them
that "d-i Beta 1", "d-i RC1" etc. don't mean "Debian Beta 1" or
"Debian RC1", I see many people asking me for support using such
monkiers. Those users will go back to being stable (hopefully) soon.

Greetings,

--
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PGP key 1024D/8BB527AF 2001-10-23
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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Paul Wise via nm
On Mon, Dec 22, 2008 at 1:49 AM, Gunnar Wolf <[hidden email]> wrote:

>> I suspect this is because Debian is loosing users. :(
>
> While we might be "losing users" to derivative distributions, that
> won't take my sleep away. And I'm not only talking about Ubuntu -

I note that Ubuntu has more than an order of magnitude more popcon submitters:

http://popcon.ubuntu.com/ 856436
http://popcon.debian.org/ 79359

--
bye,
pabs

http://wiki.debian.org/PaulWise


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Gustavo Franco-2
In reply to this post by Petter Reinholdtsen
On Sun, Dec 21, 2008 at 6:40 AM, Petter Reinholdtsen <[hidden email]> wrote:

> Looking at <URL: http://popcon.debian.org/ >, it seem to me that the
> number of stable installations is dropping fast.  The graph
> "popularity-contest versions in use" show this, with version 1.41
> being the one in stable.
>
> When the version in stable, testing and unstable were different (now
> the same version is in testing and unstable), the approximate relative
> distribution of submitteres to popcon were for stable 60%, testing 20%
> and unstable 5% (the rest were non-upgraded installs of various
> flavour).
>
> The number of installations using testing has been slowly increasing,
> but not enough to compensate for the reduction in stable
> installations.  The net effect is that fewer and fewer are submitting
> to popcon.debian.org.
>
> I suspect this is because Debian is loosing users. :(
>

...to Gentoo. Oh no, that thread again years later. :P

We are definitely loosing users to our arrogance and lack of fun, all
in a not so nice package with no innovative features and bugs. Please
note that nothing I said comes from you pere.

regards,
-- Gustavo "stratus" Franco


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Michelle Konzack-2
In reply to this post by Sven Joachim
Am 2008-12-21 10:32:53, schrieb Sven Joachim:
> At least as far as popcon is concerned, the number of users does not
> seem to go down.

Are you sure?  --  In the last 3 month I have added  158  servers  which
are under my control...  If I have time, I will add the 680 Workstations
from the  CyberCenters  in  Germany,  France,  Spain,  Morocco,  Turkey,
Lebanon and Iran...

And it seems, there is something rejecting my popcon  messages  from  my
28 servers hosted in the Turkey and Iran.

Thanks, Greetings and nice Day/Evening
    Michelle Konzack
    Systemadministrator
    24V Electronic Engineer
    Tamay Dogan Network
    Debian GNU/Linux Consultant


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Michelle Konzack-2
In reply to this post by Paul Wise via nm
Am 2008-12-22 14:37:58, schrieb Paul Wise:
> I note that Ubuntu has more than an order of magnitude more popcon
> submitters:

Because it is installed and activated by default...
(At least on the Machine I have installed for a friend)

Thanks, Greetings and nice Day/Evening
    Michelle Konzack
    Systemadministrator
    24V Electronic Engineer
    Tamay Dogan Network
    Debian GNU/Linux Consultant


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Neil Williams-4
In reply to this post by Michelle Konzack-2
On Tue, 23 Dec 2008 17:33:38 +0100
Michelle Konzack <[hidden email]> wrote:

> Am 2008-12-21 10:32:53, schrieb Sven Joachim:
> > At least as far as popcon is concerned, the number of users does not
> > seem to go down.
>
> Are you sure?  --  In the last 3 month I have added  158  servers  which
> are under my control...  If I have time, I will add the 680 Workstations
> from the  CyberCenters  in  Germany,  France,  Spain,  Morocco,  Turkey,
> Lebanon and Iran...
>
> And it seems, there is something rejecting my popcon  messages  from  my
> 28 servers hosted in the Turkey and Iran.
You mean other than the broken cable under the Mediterranean?

--


Neil Williams
=============
http://www.data-freedom.org/
http://www.nosoftwarepatents.com/
http://www.linux.codehelp.co.uk/


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Michelle Konzack-2
Hi Neil,

Am 2008-12-23 17:06:33, schrieb Neil Williams:
> On Tue, 23 Dec 2008 17:33:38 +0100
> Michelle Konzack <[hidden email]> wrote:
> > And it seems, there is something rejecting my popcon  messages  from  my
> > 28 servers hosted in the Turkey and Iran.
>
> You mean other than the broken cable under the Mediterranean?

;-)  You are not the first one asking this...

And no, I can not send messages to "popcon" since more then 4 month.

Also I have some strange error messages in my courier logs for

    popcon%64pgsql.private.tamay-dogan.net
    popcon%64router.private.tamay-dogan.net
    popcon%64samba3.private.tamay-dogan.net
    popcon%64tp570.private.tamay-dogan,net

which is a part of my @home network.  I have already written a  mail  to
<balombe> but currently goten no response.

Thanks, Greetings and nice Day/Evening
    Michelle Konzack
    Systemadministrator
    24V Electronic Engineer
    Tamay Dogan Network
    Debian GNU/Linux Consultant


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Bernd Eckenfels
In article <[hidden email]> you wrote:
> ;-)  You are not the first one asking this...
> And no, I can not send messages to "popcon" since more then 4 month.

Try running:

bash -x /etc/cron.weekly/popularity-contest

And also check /var/log/popularity-contest if addresses and content looks
sane.

If that works, check your mail logs.

Greetings
Bernd


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Michelle Konzack-2
Am 2008-12-23 20:54:41, schrieb Bernd Eckenfels:

> In article <[hidden email]> you wrote:
> > ;-)  You are not the first one asking this...
> > And no, I can not send messages to "popcon" since more then 4 month.
>
> Try running:
>
> bash -x /etc/cron.weekly/popularity-contest
>
> And also check /var/log/popularity-contest if addresses and content looks
> sane.
>
> If that works, check your mail logs.
Since I am sending the messages to my self too the copy is:

----[ STDIN ]-----------------------------------------------------------
Received: from tp570.private.tamay-dogan.net (tp570.private.tamay-dogan.net [::ffff:192.168.0.112])
  by mail.private.tamay-dogan.net with esmtp; Sun, 21 Dec 2008 00:18:20 +0100
  id 0002C143.494D7D3C.00007DAC
Received: by tp570.private.tamay-dogan.net (sSMTP sendmail emulation); Sun, 21 Dec 2008 00:15:07 +0100
Received: by tp570.private.tamay-dogan.net (TDSSMTP outspool);
        Sun, 21 Dec 2008 00:10:12 +0100
From: [hidden email]
Sender: [hidden email]
To: [hidden email], [hidden email]
Subject: popularity-contest submission
Message-ID: <BgMco.A.dzC.ztXTJB@tp570>
Date: Sun, 21 Dec 2008 00:10:12 +0100
Envelope-to: [hidden email]
X-TDMailSerialnumber: 8698824
X-TDMailCount: true

POPULARITY-CONTEST-0 TIME:1229814642 ID:a95d4d0a8742437d9494302f05ff19e9 ARCH:i386 POPCONVER:1.28
1229814623 1196097821 ssmtp /usr/sbin/mailq
1229814623 1196096996 procmail /usr/bin/formail
1229814619 1196096059 grep /bin/grep
1229814616 1196096938 coreutils /usr/bin/cut
1229814614 1196096943 dpkg /usr/bin/dpkg-query
<snip>
------------------------------------------------------------------------

which is probably correct and since I am sending THIS message  over  the
same relay  <mail.private.tamay-dogan.net>  I  know,  my  Mailserver  is
working.

Is there someone who can check, whether the messages from my domain  are
arriving correctly...

It seems, courier-mta is trying to deliver the  messages  several  hours
without success and then it is working, but I do not know...

I am permanent On-Line using my O2-GSM (Germany).

Thanks, Greetings and nice Day/Evening
    Michelle Konzack
    Systemadministrator
    24V Electronic Engineer
    Tamay Dogan Network
    Debian GNU/Linux Consultant


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Bernd Eckenfels
In article <[hidden email]> you wrote:
> From: [hidden email]

> which is probably correct and since I am sending THIS message  over  the
> same relay  <mail.private.tamay-dogan.net>  I  know,  my  Mailserver  is
> working.

You could try to set a different official sender address without the
internal domain.

> It seems, courier-mta is trying to deliver the  messages  several  hours
> without success and then it is working, but I do not know...

I dont know about courier, with exim i can easyly see the delivery to my
upstream relay. If it takes longer for your gateway to deliver it, you
should see an error message?

Gruss
Bernd


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Re: Is The number of stable users dropping fast?

Ron Johnson
On 12/23/08 15:50, Bernd Eckenfels wrote:

> In article <[hidden email]> you wrote:
>> From: [hidden email]
>
>> which is probably correct and since I am sending THIS message  over  the
>> same relay  <mail.private.tamay-dogan.net>  I  know,  my  Mailserver  is
>> working.
>
> You could try to set a different official sender address without the
> internal domain.
>
>> It seems, courier-mta is trying to deliver the  messages  several  hours
>> without success and then it is working, but I do not know...
>
> I dont know about courier, with exim i can easyly see the delivery to my
> upstream relay. If it takes longer for your gateway to deliver it, you
> should see an error message?

Slightly changing topic: with USEHTTP="yes", what do I look for in
/var/log/popularity-contest to positively determine whether the info
is getting sent?

(I've grepped syslog for popularity-contest but don't see anything.)

--
Ron Johnson, Jr.
Jefferson LA  USA

I like my women like I like my coffee - purchased at above-market
rates from eco-friendly organic farming cooperatives in Latin America.


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